9 April 2026 Situation Report

Situation
The health system remains stable with no disruption to critical services. The NCC is at Mode 1 (Heightened Coordination).

Key Assessments

• The health system is likely to face challenges over the next 3 to 6 months at least, primarily driven by fuel cost escalation and second-order impacts on mobility, logistics and service delivery.
• The early impacts are on community and transport-dependent services.
• If fuel conditions reach phases 2-3, this will likely require a prioritisation of services, concentrating on core and high-impact activity. The public health system may need to reduce elective and low-priority services.
• Demand for care is unlikely to reduce under sustained disruption but will shift across the health system.
• Existing inequities in access to care are likely to be exacerbated under sustained disruption.
  

Fuel

• Fuel supply remains stable in New Zealand, but higher fuel prices are driving system-wide cost pressures.
• Oil prices have fallen overnight but remain volatile.
• Higher fuel prices are flowing through to higher freight costs.
• Workforce mobility is seeing some behaviour change but no widespread disruption.
• Patient access also remains relatively stable, with some emerging signs of missed appointments.
• Fuel storage sites, including hospital diesel reserves, could become attractive targets and security measures should be reviewed.
  

Medical Supplies

• Supplies of critical medicines and devices remain stable with no system-level shortages and adequate in-country stocks.
• Global shipping disruption is increasing procurement complexity, extending lead times and reducing visibility for some supply chains.
• Fuel surcharges and rising freight costs are increasing landed prices.
• Any ongoing disruption to global oil flows increases the risk of supply constraint over time. Lead times may increase, with reduced flexibility in procurement.
• The restricting of petrochemicals used in the production of medical supplies will have second-order implications for the global health sector in the medium term. It is already impacting manufacturing capacity in Asia.
• Sustained disruption will result in increasing costs and supply pressures, with any unavailability of non-substitutable items leading to delays to some planned care.
  

NCC Actions

• Monitoring is in place across fuel, supply chain, workforce, access, and telehealth indicators.
• Engagement with suppliers and partners is ongoing; confirming stock levels, managing disruption, and maintaining continuity (including use of buffer stock).
• Cross-agency coordination with MBIE, NEMA, and system partners; aligning fuel, logistics, and recovery activity.
• Engagement with commissioned providers and telehealth services is ongoing; maintaining service continuity and reducing travel-dependent disruption.
• Analysis underway to assess implications of fuel escalation phases; informing prioritisation and response planning.
• Identification ongoing of critical services, roles, and locations most vulnerable to fuel, workforce, and logistics disruption.
• Strengthening monitoring of priority populations and affected communities, enabling early intervention and limiting widening inequities.