GLOBAL FUEL DISRUPTION

The conflict in the Middle East and the disruption to the movement of oil and fossil fuel products is having wide-reaching impacts globally.

NZPSHA is one of two non-government agencies receiving regular Strategic Assessments and Situation Reports from Health New Zealand's National Coordination Centre (NCC). Information received from NCC and other sources can be found here and is regularly updated.

Health Sector Updates

30 April 2026 Update

Summary

Service delivery across the health system remains stable nationally, with no system‑level disruption identified, and impacts remain unchanged from previous reporting. The NCC remains at Mode 1 (Heightened Coordination).

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East is sustaining record‑level uncertainty in global energy markets, with oil prices remaining under upward pressure. In New Zealand, fuel supply remains stable and is currently assessed at Phase 1 (Watchful). Fuel stocks are at normal levels.

System‑wide planning for potential escalation continues.

Health providers are seeing increasing impacts on patients and whānau, including a higher frequency of missed appointments—especially among vulnerable populations and rural communities.

Risks

Reduced visibility of upstream supply chain pressures and downstream impacts, including third‑party dependencies and provider exposure.

Sustained fuel price elevation and supplier surcharges creating ongoing financial pressure, with increasing risk to service viability and delivery models.

Continued freight disruption and rising logistics costs, extending lead times and increasing risk to availability of critical consumables, medicines, and medical devices.

Equity impacts emerging from cost pressures, including reduced access for rural, high‑deprivation, and Māori communities, particularly affecting outreach and mobile service delivery.

Next Steps

Monitor emerging risks across fuel, workforce, and access pressures.

Provide Phase 2 fuel planning implementation guidance and progress Phase 3 planning discussions, defining operational thresholds, triggers, and service-level implications.

Strengthen monitoring of priority populations and affected communities to enable early intervention and limit widening inequities.

24 April 2026 Update

Summary

The health system remains stable with no disruption to critical services. NCC remains at Mode 1 (Heightened Coordination).

Current Situation

Health service delivery remains stable nationally, with no system-level disruption identified. There is ongoing cost pressure from sustained fuel cost escalation. Fuel supply remains stable, with New Zealand at Phase 1 (Watchful). Fuel stocks remain within normal levels, and supply chains are largely operating normally.

Key Developments

NCC is continuing to plan its response should NZ need to move to a higher Phase of the National Fuel Plan. Detailed operational thresholds, triggers, and service-level implications remain under development.

NCC has advised NZPSHA that Phases 3 and 4 of the National Fuel Plan would likely require closer alignment and engagement between Health NZ and the private sector. I am working with NCC on how we can assist in the planning for Phases 3 and 4. If you want to be directly involved in the planning discussions with NCC, please let me know.

Pharmac is proactively engaging with suppliers to confirm stock levels and mitigate potential disruption. It is managing four supply issues related to the Middle East conflict (three medicines and one medical device); two have been published due to potential patient impact, while the other two currently have no patient impact.

Risks

Sustained fuel cost escalation is continuing to drive operational and financial pressure across transport, logistics, and service delivery. Supplier fuel surcharges are becoming common.

Shipping disruption and rerouting is continuing to extend lead times and increase variability, with strain in specialised consumables and devices and limitations in supplier pipeline visibility. If conflict-related disruption extends beyond three months, medicine and medical device supply impacts may become more noticeable and create additional cost pressure.

Workforce mobility constraints are emerging, particularly in rural and travel-dependent roles, with early reductions in outreach and service coverage among community and commissioned providers. Increasing access barriers to care are emerging, including missed appointments, reduced outreach, and pressure on community pharmacy and transport services.

Emerging security risks to fleet and fuel storage (e.g. fuel card theft, siphoning, vehicle interference), creating risk to generator resilience, fleet operations, and continuity of critical services if not mitigated.

Risk of inequitable impacts increasing, particularly for rural, Māori, Pacific, disabled, and lower-income populations.

Next Steps

NCC is expecting to remain in Mode 1, with a focus on situational awareness and monitoring emerging risks across fuel, workforce, and access pressures.

Progress Phase 2 planning and Phase 3 planning discussions.

Strengthen engagement with commissioned providers and partners to maintain service continuity and mitigate emerging access impacts.

Strengthen monitoring of priority populations and affected communities to enable early intervention and limit widening inequities.

16 April 2026 Update

The current advice is that the health system remains stable with no disruption to critical services. The NCC remains at Mode 1 (Heightened Coordination).

However, sustained fuel cost escalation is creating operational and financial pressure across transport, logistics, and service delivery. Community-based and home support services are now seeing reduced utilisation and emerging barriers to accessing care.

Work is continuing to predict the impact on health services of significant fuel shortages and supply disruptions, should they arise.

NCC is keen to hear about any supply disruptions that hospitals may be experiencing. Please send your information through to Chris to collate.

9 April 2026 Situation Report

Situation
The health system remains stable with no disruption to critical services. The NCC is at Mode 1 (Heightened Coordination).

Key Assessments

The health system is likely to face challenges over the next 3 to 6 months at least, primarily driven by fuel cost escalation and second-order impacts on mobility, logistics and service delivery.
The early impacts are on community and transport-dependent services.
If fuel conditions reach phases 2-3, this will likely require a prioritisation of services, concentrating on core and high-impact activity. The public health system may need to reduce elective and low-priority services.
Demand for care is unlikely to reduce under sustained disruption but will shift across the health system.
Existing inequities in access to care are likely to be exacerbated under sustained disruption.

Fuel

Fuel supply remains stable in New Zealand, but higher fuel prices are driving system-wide cost pressures.
Oil prices have fallen overnight but remain volatile.
Higher fuel prices are flowing through to higher freight costs.
Workforce mobility is seeing some behaviour change but no widespread disruption.
Patient access also remains relatively stable, with some emerging signs of missed appointments.
Fuel storage sites, including hospital diesel reserves, could become attractive targets and security measures should be reviewed.

Medical Supplies

Supplies of critical medicines and devices remain stable with no system-level shortages and adequate in-country stocks.
Global shipping disruption is increasing procurement complexity, extending lead times and reducing visibility for some supply chains.
Fuel surcharges and rising freight costs are increasing landed prices.
Any ongoing disruption to global oil flows increases the risk of supply constraint over time. Lead times may increase, with reduced flexibility in procurement.
The restricting of petrochemicals used in the production of medical supplies will have second-order implications for the global health sector in the medium term. It is already impacting manufacturing capacity in Asia.
Sustained disruption will result in increasing costs and supply pressures, with any unavailability of non-substitutable items leading to delays to some planned care.

NCC Actions

Monitoring is in place across fuel, supply chain, workforce, access, and telehealth indicators.
Engagement with suppliers and partners is ongoing; confirming stock levels, managing disruption, and maintaining continuity (including use of buffer stock).
Cross-agency coordination with MBIE, NEMA, and system partners; aligning fuel, logistics, and recovery activity.
Engagement with commissioned providers and telehealth services is ongoing; maintaining service continuity and reducing travel-dependent disruption.
Analysis underway to assess implications of fuel escalation phases; informing prioritisation and response planning.
Identification ongoing of critical services, roles, and locations most vulnerable to fuel, workforce, and logistics disruption.
Strengthening monitoring of priority populations and affected communities, enabling early intervention and limiting widening inequities.

Fuel Supply updates

MBIE publishes the latest information on current fuel stocks every Monday and Wednesday afternoon. Fuel Stocks Update